{"id":7850,"date":"2021-09-29T10:38:02","date_gmt":"2021-09-29T08:38:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businessintelligence.pl\/sales-forecasting-methods-models-and-how-to-create-an-accurate-forecast\/"},"modified":"2026-09-16T15:20:48","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T13:20:48","slug":"sales-forecasting-methods-models-and-how-to-create-an-accurate-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businessintelligence.pl\/en\/sales-forecasting-methods-models-and-how-to-create-an-accurate-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"Sales Forecasting: methods, models and how to create an accurate forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"\nSales are typically the primary source of financial resources for businesses, essential for operations and growth. Therefore, sales forecasting, much like cost planning, is a crucial element of company management. So, what are the methods for effective sales forecasting?<\/b>\n\nForecasting is the result of applying scientific methods to predict events, phenomena, or trends that are expected to occur in the future. In the context of sales, forecasting involves determining its most approximate value at a given time (e.g., a year), as well as estimating its dynamics in subsequent periods, such as individual quarters or months.<\/span>\n

Identifying the Predictable in the Unpredictable: Analyzing Vast Amounts of Information<\/b><\/h2>\nIt should be remembered that every forecast is merely a prediction of future events, so it is obvious that determining their occurrence is always subject to some risk \u2013 greater or lesser, depending on the type of event. While some events are almost certain or predetermined (e.g., the fact that the sun rises and sets every day), even for these, at least theoretically, we cannot be sure whether they will actually happen the next day, a month, or a year from now. <\/span>\n\nOf course, events, circumstances, and factors influencing sales are not as constant as astronomical laws. On the contrary, they show enormous variability. The number of variables that directly and indirectly determine sales is truly significant, and a large portion of them are difficult to predict and often depend on a random factor. Therefore, in practice, one may encounter the statement that there is no absolutely effective method for determining future sales, i.e., one that provides an infallible and certain forecast. Moreover, there is never a guarantee that even the most reliable forecasts will prove accurate. Yet, in planning resources, employment, production, or investments, it is always better to have some sales forecast than to have none at all\u2026<\/span>\n\nSales forecasting is a complex and relatively difficult field, requiring solid knowledge of mathematics, statistics, and econometrics. Since sales depend on many variables, the basic principle in planning them is to analyze historical data. It is worth adding here that the information typically available to a company can be divided into ‘hard’ data, describing specific facts, events, or numbers, and ‘soft’ data, based on individual employee experiences, or even their intuition. <\/span>\n

Variables Shaping the Sales Forecast<\/b><\/h2>\nWhat variables can influence sales, and which of them should be considered in the sales forecasting process? They can be divided into internal and external factors.<\/span>\n<\/span>\n

Internal factors influencing sales levels<\/b><\/h4>\n